Search results for "Probabilistic logic"

Thompson Sampling Based Active Learning in Probabilistic Programs with Application to Travel Time Estimation

2019

The pertinent problem of Traveling Time Estimation (TTE) is to estimate the travel time, given a start location and a destination, solely based on the coordinates of the points under consideration. This is typically solved by fitting a function based on a sequence of observations. However, it can be expensive or slow to obtain labeled data or measurements to calibrate the estimation function. Active Learning tries to alleviate this problem by actively selecting samples that minimize the total number of samples needed to do accurate inference. Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPL) give us the opportunities to apply powerful Bayesian inference to model problems that involve uncertainties.…

Autonomous ultrasonic inspection using Bayesian optimisation and robust outlier analysis

2020

The use of robotics is beginning to play a key role in automating the data collection process in Non Destructive Testing (NDT). Increasing the use of automation quickly leads to the gathering of large quantities of data, which makes it inefficient, perhaps even infeasible, for a human to parse the information contained in them. This paper presents a solution to this problem by making the process of NDT data acquisition an autonomous one as opposed to an automatic one. In order to achieve this, the robotic data acquisition task is treated as an optimisation problem, where one seeks to find locations with the highest indication of damage. The resulting algorithm combines damage detection tech…

The probabilistic pickup-and-delivery travelling salesman problem

2019

Abstract Transportation problems are essential in commercial logistics and have been widely studied in the literature during the last decades. Many of them consist in designing routes for vehicles to move commodities between locations. This article approaches a pickup-and-delivery single-vehicle routing problem where there is susceptibility to uncertainty in customer requests. The probability distributions of the requests are assumed to be known, and the objective is to design an a priori route with minimum expected length. The problem has already been approached in the literature, but through a heuristic method. This article proposes the first exact approach to the problem. Two mathematica…

Graph-theoretical derivation of brain structural connectivity

2020

Brain connectivity at the single neuron level can provide fundamental insights into how information is integrated and propagated within and between brain regions. However, it is almost impossible to adequately study this problem experimentally and, despite intense efforts in the field, no mathematical description has been obtained so far. Here, we present a mathematical framework based on a graph-theoretical approach that, starting from experimental data obtained from a few small subsets of neurons, can quantitatively explain and predict the corresponding full network properties. This model also changes the paradigm with which large-scale model networks can be built, from using probabilisti…

On the structural connectivity of large-scale models of brain networks at cellular level

2021

AbstractThe brain’s structural connectivity plays a fundamental role in determining how neuron networks generate, process, and transfer information within and between brain regions. The underlying mechanisms are extremely difficult to study experimentally and, in many cases, large-scale model networks are of great help. However, the implementation of these models relies on experimental findings that are often sparse and limited. Their predicting power ultimately depends on how closely a model’s connectivity represents the real system. Here we argue that the data-driven probabilistic rules, widely used to build neuronal network models, may not be appropriate to represent the dynamics of the …

Low-cost scalable discretization, prediction and feature selection for complex systems

2019

The introduced data-driven tool allows simultaneous feature selection, model inference, and marked cost and quality gains.

Probabilistic cross-validation estimators for Gaussian process regression

2018

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are state-of-the-art tools for regression. Inference of GP hyperparameters is typically done by maximizing the marginal log-likelihood (ML). If the data truly follows the GP model, using the ML approach is optimal and computationally efficient. Unfortunately very often this is not case and suboptimal results are obtained in terms of prediction error. Alternative procedures such as cross-validation (CV) schemes are often employed instead, but they usually incur in high computational costs. We propose a probabilistic version of CV (PCV) based on two different model pieces in order to reduce the dependence on a specific model choice. PCV presents the benefits from both…

Uncertainty quantification on a spatial Markov-chain model for the progression of skin cancer

2019

AbstractA spatial Markov-chain model is formulated for the progression of skin cancer. The model is based on the division of the computational domain into nodal points, that can be in a binary state: either in ‘cancer state’ or in ‘non-cancer state’. The model assigns probabilities for the non-reversible transition from ‘non-cancer’ state to the ‘cancer state’ that depend on the states of the neighbouring nodes. The likelihood of transition further depends on the life burden intensity of the UV-rays that the skin is exposed to. The probabilistic nature of the process and the uncertainty in the input data is assessed by the use of Monte Carlo simulations. A good fit between experiments on mi…

Error in the finite difference based probabilistic dynamic analysis: analytical evaluation

2005

Adaptive Kernel Learning for Signal Processing

2018

Adaptive filtering is a central topic in digital signal processing (DSP). By applying linear adaptive filtering principles in the kernel feature space, powerful nonlinear adaptive filtering algorithms can be obtained. This chapter introduces the wide topic of adaptive signal processing, and explores the emerging field of kernel adaptive filtering (KAF). In many signal processing applications, the problem of signal estimation is addressed. Probabilistic models have proven to be very useful in this context. The chapter discusses two families of kernel adaptive filters, namely kernel least mean squares (KLMS) and kernel recursive least‐squares (KRLS) algorithms. In order to design a practical …